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FreDN: Spectral Disentanglement for Time Series Forecasting via Learnable Frequency Decomposition

An, Zhongde, You, Jinhong, Li, Jiyanglin, Tang, Yiming, Li, Wen, Du, Heming, Du, Shouguo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time series forecasting is essential in a wide range of real world applications. Recently, frequency-domain methods have attracted increasing interest for their ability to capture global dependencies. However, when applied to non-stationary time series, these methods encounter the $\textit{spectral entanglement}$ and the computational burden of complex-valued learning. The $\textit{spectral entanglement}$ refers to the overlap of trends, periodicities, and noise across the spectrum due to $\textit{spectral leakage}$ and the presence of non-stationarity. However, existing decompositions are not suited to resolving spectral entanglement. To address this, we propose the Frequency Decomposition Network (FreDN), which introduces a learnable Frequency Disentangler module to separate trend and periodic components directly in the frequency domain. Furthermore, we propose a theoretically supported ReIm Block to reduce the complexity of complex-valued operations while maintaining performance. We also re-examine the frequency-domain loss function and provide new theoretical insights into its effectiveness. Extensive experiments on seven long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that FreDN outperforms state-of-the-art methods by up to 10\%. Furthermore, compared with standard complex-valued architectures, our real-imaginary shared-parameter design reduces the parameter count and computational cost by at least 50\%.


Compact Artificial Neural Network Models for Predicting Protein Residue -- RNA Base Binding

Selitskiy, Stanislav

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have demonstrated success in various domains, including general text and image generation, drug discovery, and protein-RNA (ribonucleic acid) binding tasks. However, these models typically demand substantial computational resources, time, and data for effective training. Given that such extensive resources are often inaccessible to many researchers and that life sciences data sets are frequently limited, we investigated whether small ANN models could achieve acceptable accuracy in protein-RNA prediction. We experimented with shallow feed-forward ANNs comprising two hidden layers and various non-linearities. These models did not utilize explicit structural information; instead, a sliding window approach was employed to implicitly consider the context of neighboring residues and bases. We explored different training techniques to address the issue of highly unbalanced data. Among the seven most popular non-linearities for feed-forward ANNs, only three: Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU), Gated Linear Unit (GLU), and Hyperbolic Tangent (Tanh) yielded converging models. Common re-balancing techniques, such as under- and over-sampling of training sets, proved ineffective, whereas increasing the volume of training data and using model ensembles significantly improved performance. The optimal context window size, balancing both false negative and false positive errors, was found to be approximately 30 residues and bases. Our findings indicate that high-accuracy protein-RNA binding prediction is achievable using computing hardware accessible to most educational and research institutions.


Uncertainty-aware data assimilation through variational inference

Frion, Anthony, Greenberg, David S

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data assimilation, consisting in the combination of a dynamical model with a set of noisy and incomplete observations in order to infer the state of a system over time, involves uncertainty in most settings. Building upon an existing deterministic machine learning approach, we propose a variational inference-based extension in which the predicted state follows a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Using the chaotic Lorenz-96 dynamics as a testing ground, we show that our new model enables to obtain nearly perfectly calibrated predictions, and can be integrated in a wider variational data assimilation pipeline in order to achieve greater benefit from increasing lengths of data assimilation windows. Our code is available at https://github.com/anthony-frion/Stochastic_CODA.


Experimental Assessment of a Multi-Class AI/ML Architecture for Real-Time Characterization of Cyber Events in a Live Research Reactor

Dahm, Zachery, Vasili, Konstantinos, Theos, Vasileios, Gkouliaras, Konstantinos, Richards, William, Miller, True, Jowers, Brian, Chatzidakis, Stylianos

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There is increased interest in applying Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) within the nuclear industry and nuclear engineering community. Effective implementation of AI/ML could offer benefits to the nuclear domain, including enhanced identification of anomalies, anticipation of system failures, and operational schedule optimization. However, limited work has been done to investigate the feasibility and applicability of AI/ML tools in a functioning nuclear reactor. Here, we go beyond the development of a single model and introduce a multi-layered AI/ML architecture that integrates both information technology and operational technology data streams to identify, characterize, and differentiate (i) among diverse cybersecurity events and (ii) between cyber events and other operational anomalies. Leveraging Purdue Universitys research reactor, PUR-1, we demonstrate this architecture through a representative use case that includes multiple concurrent false data injections and denial-of-service attacks of increasing complexity under realistic reactor conditions. The use case includes 14 system states (1 normal, 13 abnormal) and over 13.8 million multi-variate operational and information technology data points. The study demonstrated the capability of AI/ML to distinguish between normal, abnormal, and cybersecurity-related events, even under challenging conditions such as denial-of-service attacks. Combining operational and information technology data improved classification accuracy but posed challenges related to synchronization and collection during certain cyber events. While results indicate significant promise for AI/ML in nuclear cybersecurity, the findings also highlight the need for further refinement in handling complex event differentiation and multi-class architectures.


MR-EEGWaveNet: Multiresolutional EEGWaveNet for Seizure Detection from Long EEG Recordings

Hassan, Kazi Mahmudul, Zhao, Xuyang, Sugano, Hidenori, Tanaka, Toshihisa

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Feature engineering for generalized seizure detection models remains a significant challenge. Recently proposed models show variable performance depending on the training data and remain ineffective at accurately distinguishing artifacts from seizure data. In this study, we propose a novel end-to-end model, "Multiresolutional EEGWaveNet (MR-EEGWaveNet)," which efficiently distinguishes seizure events from background electroencephalogram (EEG) and artifacts/noise by capturing both temporal dependencies across different time frames and spatial relationships between channels. The model has three modules: convolution, feature extraction, and predictor. The convolution module extracts features through depth-wise and spatio-temporal convolution. The feature extraction module individually reduces the feature dimension extracted from EEG segments and their sub-segments. Subsequently, the extracted features are concatenated into a single vector for classification using a fully connected classifier called the predictor module. In addition, an anomaly score-based post-classification processing technique is introduced to reduce the false-positive rates of the model. Experimental results are reported and analyzed using different parameter settings and datasets (Siena (public) and Juntendo (private)). The proposed MR-EEGWaveNet significantly outperformed the conventional non-multiresolution approach, improving the F1 scores from 0.177 to 0.336 on Siena and 0.327 to 0.488 on Juntendo, with precision gains of 15.9% and 20.62%, respectively.



Prompting Large Language Models for Training-Free Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring

Xue, Junyu, Wang, Xudong, He, Xiaoling, Liu, Shicheng, Wang, Yi, Tang, Guoming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) aims to disaggregate total electricity consumption into individual appliance usage, thus enabling more effective energy management. While deep learning has advanced NILM, it remains limited by its dependence on labeled data, restricted generalization, and lack of explainability. This paper introduces the first prompt-based NILM framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) with in-context learning. We design and evaluate prompt strategies that integrate appliance features, contextual information, and representative time-series examples through extensive case studies. Extensive experiments on the REDD and UK-DALE datasets show that LLMs guided solely by prompts deliver only basic NILM capabilities, with performance that lags behind traditional deep-learning models in complex scenarios. However, the experiments also demonstrate strong generalization across different houses and even regions by simply adapting the injected appliance features. It also provides clear, human-readable explanations for the inferred appliance states. Our findings define the capability boundaries of using prompt-only LLMs for NILM tasks. Their strengths in generalization and explainability present a promising new direction for the field.


Graph Convolutional Neural Networks to Model the Brain for Insomnia

Monteiro, Kevin, Nallaperuma-Herzberg, Sam, Mason, Martina, Niederer, Steve

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Insomnia affects a vast population of the world and can have a wide range of causes. Existing treatments for insomnia have been linked with many side effects like headaches, dizziness, etc. As such, there is a clear need for improved insomnia treatment. Brain modelling has helped with assessing the effects of brain pathology on brain network dynamics and with supporting clinical decisions in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, epilepsy, etc. However, such models have not been developed for insomnia. Therefore, this project attempts to understand the characteristics of the brain of individuals experiencing insomnia using continuous long-duration EEG data. Brain networks are derived based on functional connectivity and spatial distance between EEG channels. The power spectral density of the channels is then computed for the major brain wave frequency bands. A graph convolutional neural network (GCNN) model is then trained to capture the functional characteristics associated with insomnia and configured for the classification task to judge performance. Results indicated a 50-second non-overlapping sliding window was the most suitable choice for EEG segmentation. This approach achieved a classification accuracy of 70% at window level and 68% at subject level. Additionally, the omission of EEG channels C4-P4, F4-C4 and C4-A1 caused higher degradation in model performance than the removal of other channels. These channel electrodes are positioned near brain regions known to exhibit atypical levels of functional connectivity in individuals with insomnia, which can explain such results.


Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks-based GRU and LSTM for Loan Default Early Prediction

Yang, Yue, Su, Zihan, Zhang, Ying, Goh, Chang Chuan, Lin, Yuxiang, Bellotti, Anthony Graham, Lee, Boon Giin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study addresses a critical challenge in time series anomaly detection: enhancing the predictive capability of loan default models more than three months in advance to enable early identification of default events, helping financial institutions implement preventive measures before risk events materialize. Existing methods have significant drawbacks, such as their lack of accuracy in early predictions and their dependence on training and testing within the same year and specific time frames. These issues limit their practical use, particularly with out-of-time data. To address these, the study introduces two innovative architectures, GRU-KAN and LSTM-KAN, which merge Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) with Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The proposed models were evaluated against the baseline models (LSTM, GRU, LSTM-Attention, and LSTM-Transformer) in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, F1 and AUC in different lengths of feature window, sample sizes, and early prediction intervals. The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a prediction accuracy of over 92% three months in advance and over 88% eight months in advance, significantly outperforming existing baselines.


Learnable Adaptive Time-Frequency Representation via Differentiable Short-Time Fourier Transform

Leiber, Maxime, Marnissi, Yosra, Barrau, Axel, Meignen, Sylvain, Massoulié, Laurent

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The short-time Fourier transform (STFT) is widely used for analyzing non-stationary signals. However, its performance is highly sensitive to its parameters, and manual or heuristic tuning often yields suboptimal results. To overcome this limitation, we propose a unified differentiable formulation of the STFT that enables gradient-based optimization of its parameters. This approach addresses the limitations of traditional STFT parameter tuning methods, which often rely on computationally intensive discrete searches. It enables fine-tuning of the time-frequency representation (TFR) based on any desired criterion. Moreover, our approach integrates seamlessly with neural networks, allowing joint optimization of the STFT parameters and network weights. The efficacy of the proposed differentiable STFT in enhancing TFRs and improving performance in downstream tasks is demonstrated through experiments on both simulated and real-world data.